Brody Hessin, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Journal of Science Policy & Governance | Volume 18, Issue 01 | March 24, 2021

Policy Memo: Mitigating California Wildfire Impact Through Zoning and Housing Policy

Conner S. Philson (1), Lauren Wagner (2), Ria Nawathe (3)
  1. University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Los Angeles, CA
  2. University of California, Los Angeles, Neuroscience Interdepartmental Program, Los Angeles, CA
  3. University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Psychology, Los Angeles, CA

Corresponding author: cphilson@ucla.edu
Download PDF
https://doi.org/10.38126/JSPG180112
Keywords: wildfire; housing crisis; climate adaptation; urban-wildland interface; up-zoning; buyout
Executive Summary: Since 1970, California has been facing the worst affordable housing crisis in the United States. In an attempted solution, government subsidies have driven housing development into untouched wildlands across the state. However, these developments are increasingly subject to destruction by wildfire due to global climate change and historical mismanagement of public lands. Since 1990, 41% of new housing across California has been developed in known fire zones. Wildfire prevention, combat, and damage costs approximately $18 billion annually, with $10 billion attributed to property damage. During 2020, California’s worst fire year on record, more than 4.4 million acres burned with costs to personal property estimated to exceed $20 billion. Therefore, residential zoning and housing policy are critical components to mitigate wildfire impact. To do so, we propose the implementation of a multipronged approach over the next decade: discontinue development in extremely high-risk fire zones, increase government buyouts in these high-risk areas to move people out of harm’s way, increase urban up-zoning to generate affordable housing, and increase retrofitting of existing at-risk homes to enhance structural and resident survival. This will be a historic economic, legislative, and logistic undertaking. However, despite the large up-front costs, an estimated $350 billion and 1,500 lives can be saved over the next decade through this approach. The consequences to life and property because of wildfire in California are too great for inaction or incremental progress. Swift and foundational change is required over the coming decade.

-Read the full article through download.-
Download PDF

References

  1. Abatzoglou, John T., and A. Park Williams. 2016. "Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113:11770-11775. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113
  2. Asquith, Brian, Evan Mast, and Davin Reed. 2019. "Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects of New Housing in Low-Income Areas." Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. https://doi.org/10.17848/wp19-316
  3. Badger, Emily, and Quoctrung Bui. 2019. "Cities start to question an American ideal: A house with a yard on every lot." New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/18/upshot/cities-across-america-question-single-family-zoning.html
  4. Bliss, Laura. 2019. "Oregon’s Single-Family Zoning Ban Was a ‘Long Time Coming" CityLab. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-02/upzoning-rising-oregon-bans-single-family-zoning
  5. Burnett, Richard, Hong Chen, Mieczysław Szyszkowicz, Neal Fann, Bryan Hubbell, C. Arden Pope, Joshua S. Apte et al. 2018. "Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115:9592-9597. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1803222115
  6. California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE). 2020. “Stats and Events.” Cal Fire Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. State of California. https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/
  7. California Department of Insurance (CDOI). 2016. "Valley and Butte Fires Cause an Estimated $1 Billion in Insurance Losses." News release, January 25, 2016. California Department of Insurance. https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/archives/release009-16.cfm
  8. California Department of Insurance (CDOI). 2017. "Insured Losses from October Wildfires Top $3 Billion Statewide." News release, October 31, 2017. California Department of Insurance. http://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/archives/release118-17.cfm 
  9. California Department of Insurance (CDOI). 2018. "Insurance Commissioner Reports over $9 Billion Insured Losses from Deadly 2018 Wildfires." News release, December 12, 2018. California Department of Insurance. http://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2018/release142-18.cfm
  10. California Department of Insurance (CDOI). 2019. "Wildfire Insurance Losses from November 2018 Blazes Top $12 Billion." News release, May 8, 2019. California Department of Insurance. http://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2019/release041-19.cfm
  11. Cowan, Jill. 2020. “How Much Will the Wildfires Cost?” The New York Times, September 16, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/us/california-fires-cost.html
  12. Crump, Sarah, Jenny Schuetz, Trevor Mattos, and Luc Schuster. 2020. "Zoned Out: Why Massachusetts Needs to Legalize Apartments Near Transit." https://www.bostonindicators.org/reports/report-website-pages/zoned-out
  13. Cuzzillo, Bernard R., and Patrick J. Pagni. 1998 "Thermal breakage of double-pane glazing by fire." Journal of Fire Protection Engineering 9:1-11. https://doi.org/10.1177/104239159800900101  
  14. Dabson, Brian, and Karla Jimenez-Magdaleno. 2017. "FEMA-Funded Property Buyouts: The Impacts on Land and People." https://ncgrowth.unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Buyouts_Impact_LIteratureReview_Final.pdf
  15. Davis, Kimberley T., Philip E. Higuera, and Anna Sala. 2018. "Anticipating fire‐mediated impacts of climate change using a demographic framework." Functional Ecology 32:1729-1745. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13132  
  16. Fann, Neal, Breanna Alman, Richard A. Broome, Geoffrey G. Morgan, Fay H. Johnston, George Pouliot, and Ana G. Rappold. 2018. "The health impacts and economic value of wildland fire episodes in the US: 2008–2012." Science of the total environment 610:802-809. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.024  
  17. FEMA. 2007. “Mitigation’s Value to Society.” Homeland Security Digital Library. United States Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2007. https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=480585
  18. FEMA. 2008. “Home Builder’s Guide to Construction in Wildfire Zones.” United States Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2008. https://www.ready.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/home-builder -guide-construction-defensible-space.pdf
  19. FEMA. 2009. “Loss Avoidance Study: Eastern Missouri, Building Acquisition, Part One: General Overview.” United States Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2009. https://www.fema.gov/case-study/loss-avoidance-study-eastern-missouri-building-acquisition   
  20. FEMA. 2011. “Mitigation Best Practices.” United States Federal Emergency Management Agency. http://nhma.info/uploads/bestpractices/2011%20-%20Best%20Practices%20-%20Acquisitions%20Buyouts.pdf
  21. FEMA. 2017. “Frequently Asked Questions: Property Acquisitions for Open Space.” United States Federal Emergency Management Agency. https://hallways.cap.gsa.gov/app/#/doclib?document=8039  
  22. Freudenberg, Robert, Ellis Calvin, Laura Tolkoff, and Dare Brawley. 2016. “Buy-in for buyouts: The case for managed retreat from flood zones”. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. https://www.lincolninst.edu/sites/default/files/pubfiles/buy-in-for-buyouts-full.pdf   
  23. Georgetown Climate Center. 2020. “Managed Retreat Toolkit - Voluntary Buyouts.” Georgetown Law. https://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/toolkits/managed-retreat-toolkit/voluntary-buyouts.html
  24. Gude, Patricia, Ray Rasker, and Jeff Van Den Noort. 2008. "Potential for future development on fire-prone lands." Journal of Forestry 106:198-205. https://doi.org/10.1093/jof/106.4.198  
  25. Hessl, Amy E. 2011. "Pathways for climate change effects on fire: Models, data, and uncertainties." Progress in Physical Geography 35:393-407. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133311407654  
  26. Keeley, Jon E. 1993. "Interface between ecology and land development in California." In Symposium The Interface Between Ecology and Land Development. Southern California Academy of Sciences. https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2000/of00-062/  
  27. Keeling, Brock. 2019. “SB 50 Flowchart Will Help You Make Sense of California's Transit-Housing Bill.” Curbed SF. VOX Media, April 29, 2019. https://sf.curbed.com/2019/4/29/18518339/sb-50-flowcart-californias-transit-housing-bill    
  28. Kochi, Ikuho, Geoffrey H. Donovan, Patricia A. Champ, and John B. Loomis. 2010 "The economic cost of adverse health effects from wildfire-smoke exposure: a review." International Journal of Wildland Fire 19:803-817. https://doi.org/10.1071/wf09077  
  29. Kramer, Heather Anu, Miranda H. Mockrin, Patricia M. Alexandre, and Volker C. Radeloff. 2019. "High wildfire damage in interface communities in California." International journal of wildland fire 28:641-650. https://doi.org/10.1071/wf18108  
  30. Legislative Analyst’s Office. 2020. “State Wildfire Response Costs Estimated to Be Higher Than Budgeted”. Sacramento, CA: Legislative Analyst’s Office. https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4285  
  31. Lowrey, Annie. 2020. “The Bill That Could Make California Livable Again.” The Atlantic. Atlantic Media Company, January 13, 2020. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/sb50-california/604786/  
  32. Lueck, Dean, and Jonathan K. Yoder. 2016. “Clearing the smoke from wildfire policy: An economic perspective”. PERC. https://www.perc.org/2016/07/21/clearing-the-smoke-from-wildfire-policy-an-economic-perspective/  
  33. Mach, Katharine J., Caroline M. Kraan, Miyuki Hino, A. R. Siders, Erica M. Johnston, and Christopher B. Field. 2019. "Managed retreat through voluntary buyouts of flood-prone properties." Science Advances 5:eaax8995. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax8995  
  34. Martinson, Erik J., and Philip N. Omi. 2008. "Assessing mitigation of wildfire severity by fuel treatments–an example from the Coastal Plain of Mississippi." International Journal of Wildland Fire 17:415-420. https://doi.org/10.1071/wf06067  
  35. Migaud, Michael. 2020. "Property Buyouts After Natural Disasters: The Economic Implications for Texas Residents." The Takeaway 11:2 https://bush.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/V11-2_Texas_Lyceum_Housing_Takeaway.pdf 
  36. Morrow, Greg. 2013. The Homeowner Revolution: Democracy, Land Use and the Los Angeles Slow-Growth Movement, 1965–1992. Dissertation: University of California, Los Angeles. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6k64g20f  
  37. Nichols, Chris. 2020. “PolitiFact - Fact or Fiction? A Look At Claims About SB 50, One Of California's Most Controversial Housing Bills.” PolitiFact. Poynter Institute, January 21, 2020. https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/jan/21/fact-or-fiction-look-claims-about-one-californias-/  
  38. Office of the Governor. 2020. https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads /2020/09/AB-3074.pdf  
  39. Polefka, Shiva. 2013. “Moving Out of Harm’s Way.” Center for American Progress. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/reports/2013/12/12/81046/moving-out-of-harms-way/  
  40. Pollet, Jolie, and Philip N. Omi. 2002 "Effect of thinning and prescribed burning on crown fire severity in ponderosa pine forests." International Journal of Wildland Fire 11:1-10. https://doi.org/10.1071/wf01045  
  41. Radeloff, Volker C., David P. Helmers, H. Anu Kramer, Miranda H. Mockrin, Patricia M. Alexandre, Avi Bar-Massada, Van Butsic et al. 2018. "Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115:3314-3319. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718850115  
  42. Radeloff, Volker C., Roger B. Hammer, Susan I. Stewart, Jeremy S. Fried, Sherry S. Holcomb, and Jason F. McKeefry. 2005. "The wildland–urban interface in the United States." Ecological applications 15:799-805. https://doi.org/10.1890/04-1413  
  43. Radulovich, Tom. 2018. “Rethinking Residential Zoning.” Livable City. Livable City. https://www.livablecity.org/rethinking-rh/ 
  44. Rundel, P. W., and J. A. King. 2001. "Ecosystem processes and dynamics in the urban/wildland interface of Southern California." Journal of Mediterranean Ecology 2:209-220
  45. Ruppert, Thomas, John Fergus, and Enio Russe-Garcia. 2018. "Managing Property Buyouts at the Local Level: Seeking Benefits and Limiting Harms." Environmental Law Reporter News & Analysis 48:10520. https://www.flseagrant.org/wp-content/uploads/ELR-final-pdf.pdf
  46. Schoennagel, Tania, Cara R. Nelson, David M. Theobald, Gunnar C. Carnwath, and Teresa B. Chapman. 2009. "Implementation of National Fire Plan treatments near the wildland–urban interface in the western United States." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106:10706-10711. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900991106
  47. Siders, A. R. 2019. "Managed retreat in the United States." One Earth 1:216-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.008  
  48. Stevens-Rumann, Camille S., Kerry B. Kemp, Philip E. Higuera, Brian J. Harvey, Monica T. Rother, Daniel C. Donato, Penelope Morgan, and Thomas T. Veblen. 2018. "Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change." Ecology letters 21:243-252. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12889  
  49. Syphard, Alexandra D., and Jon E. Keeley. 2019. "Factors Associated with Structure Loss in the 2013–2018 California Wildfires." Fire 2:49. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2030049  
  50. Syphard, Alexandra D., Avi Bar Massada, Van Butsic, and Jon E. Keeley. 2013. "Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss." PloS one 8:e71708. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0071708  
  51. Syphard, Alexandra D., Jon E. Keeley, Avi Bar Massada, Teresa J. Brennan, and Volker C. Radeloff. 2012. "Housing arrangement and location determine the likelihood of housing loss due to wildfire." PloS one 7:e33954. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0033954  
  52. Syphard, Alexandra D., Teresa J. Brennan, and Jon E. Keeley. 2014. "The role of defensible space for residential structure protection during wildfires." International Journal of Wildland Fire 23:1165-1175. https://doi.org/10.1071/wf13158  
  53. Syphard, Alexandra D., Teresa J. Brennan, and Jon E. Keeley. 2017. "The importance of building construction materials relative to other factors affecting structure survival during wildfire." International journal of disaster risk reduction 21:140-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.11.011  
  54. Taylor, Mac. 2015. "California’s high housing costs: Causes and consequences." Sacramento, CA: Legislative Analyst’s Office. https://homeforallsmc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/housing-costs.pdf  
  55. Westerling, Anthony L., Hugo G. Hidalgo, Daniel R. Cayan, and Thomas W. Swetnam. 2006. "Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity." Science 313:940-943. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128834
  56. White, Esther. 2011. "Establishing long-term cost effectiveness of fema buyouts: A loss avoidance study of the acquisition/demolition of 22 properties in Shepherdsville, Kentucky". https://uknowledge.uky.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1105&context=mpampp_etds
Conner S. Philson is a Ph.D. Student in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at UCLA studying the evolution and consequences of social behavior using the yellow-bellied marmot population at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) in Colorado. His science policy work focuses on combating climate change, environmental degradation, and loss of biodiversity by communicating science to voters and policy makers. He plans to pursue a career in science policy/diplomacy.
 
Lauren Wagner is a doctoral student of Neuroscience at the University of California, Los Angeles, where she uses fMRI, genetics, and behavior to understand the neural bases of language development. She is currently the Secretary of the Science Policy Group at UCLA and is interested in science diplomacy and linguistic equity within the global scientific sphere. Lauren received her bachelor’s degrees in Neuroscience and Linguistics from the University of Texas at Austin.
 
Ria Nawathe is a pre-medical undergraduate student at the University of California, Los Angeles, where she is majoring in Psychobiology. Her research work has involved studying the molecular mechanisms behind microgravity-induced skeletal muscle atrophy using ‘omics and cell culture models at NASA’s Ames Research Center. Currently, she is a member of the Science Policy Group at UCLA and is interested in the intersection of policy and social justice.
DISCLAIMER: The findings and conclusions published herein are solely attributed to the author and not necessarily endorsed or adopted by the Journal of Science Policy and Governance. Articles are distributed in compliance with copyright and trademark agreements.

ISSN 2372-2193
ISSN 2372-2193