MODIS image captured by NASA’s Aqua satellite, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Journal of Science Policy & Governance | Volume 18, Issue 02 | June 21, 2021

Policy Analysis: Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems: Adaptation Strategies for the Most Vulnerable Communities

Jessica Bhardwaj (1,2,3) , Atifa Asghari (1,2), Isabella Aitkenhead (1,2,3), Madeleine Jackson (3,4), Yuriy Kuleshov (2,3,5)
  1. Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
  2. Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, Victoria, Australia
  3. Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  4. The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
  5. The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia 
​
Corresponding author: [email protected]
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https://doi.org/10.38126/JSPG180201
Keywords: climate risk; climate adaptation; Post Disaster Reviews; risk assessment; user-centered integrated early warning system; drought; floods; tropical cyclones
Executive Summary: Climate risk and resultant natural disasters have significant impacts on human and natural environments. It is common for disaster responses to be reactive rather than proactive due to inadequate policy and planning mechanisms—such reactive management responses exacerbate human and economic losses in times of disaster. Proactive disaster responses maximize disaster resilience and preparation efforts in non-disaster periods. This report focuses on proactive, localized, and inclusive adaptation strategies for addressing impacts of three natural hazards: drought, floods, and tropical cyclones. Four key synergistic climate adaptation strategies are discussed—Post Disaster Reviews, Risk Assessments, Early Warning Systems and Forecast-based Financing. These strategies are further supported with a number of case studies and recommendations that will be of assistance for policymakers in developing evidence-based adaptation strategies that support the most vulnerable communities in the transition towards regarding disaster as a risk as opposed to a crisis.

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Atifa Asghari is a Mathematical Science graduate from Monash University (Australia). During her Honours research year in 2020, she investigated the feasibility of a Forecast-based Financing system to be implemented in an Australian context to increase drought proactivity. She worked closely with Yuriy Kuleshov and team members Isabella Aitkenhead and Jessica Bhardwaj to propose a drought response strategy to stakeholders. She has a close interest in how governments and agencies can collaborate with vulnerable communities to manage disaster risk reduction strategies (specifically financial management) for developing and least developed countries.
 
Isabella Aitkenhead is an Advanced Science and Global Challenges graduate from Monash University (Australia), with a major in Ecology and Conservation Biology. Her Honours research was focused on drought risk assessments specifically in Australia whilst considering applicability for use in other drought-vulnerable countries. She has a keen interest in climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction with specific interest in forming more positive relationships between people and the environment. During her Honours research year, she realized how important the response of local vulnerable communities to natural hazards is. She wanted to improve risk knowledge for vulnerable communities in order to increase their capacity to proactively and appropriately response to natural hazards such as drought.
 
Madeleine Jackson is an Environmental Science BSc graduate from the University of Liverpool (UK). As part of her final year dissertation, she investigated the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in Fiji and their impacts. Through an exchange semester at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University in Melbourne (Australia) she met Yuriy Kuleshov who provided her with extensive tropical cyclone data. Her dissertation research has now been incorporated into this project for JSPG. In 2017, she took part in a volunteering project to Fiji. During her time there she experienced a tropical cyclone which led to her interest in this topic. She was able to engage with the local community and see the devastation caused, therefore she wanted her research to contribute towards reducing these impacts.
 
Jessica Bhardwaj is a physical science graduate from Monash University (Australia) and recent PhD candidate with the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University. In 2020 she undertook her Honours research project investigating the early prediction, detection and communication of drought and its related impacts in Australia’s Northern Murray Darling Basin. This research made her interested in the development and implementation of user-centered Early Warning Systems for Disaster Risk Reduction in hazard-vulnerable communities around the world. She is currently a researcher with the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia, investigating the potential for such systems in Pacific Island countries such as Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.
 
Yuriy Kuleshov is a climate scientist; his current roles are a Science Lead for the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) projects at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Adjunct Professor at the SPACE Research Centre, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University; Chairman of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring (SWCEM), among others. Yuriy is passionate about guiding the younger generation of scientists on climate research.
 
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the various participants from the multiple qualitative studies. We are particularly grateful for the various participant and stakeholder insights from Northern MDB communities.

Disclaimer
All case studies were conducted as a part of junior authors’ Honours programs under the supervision of Prof. Yuriy Kuleshov. The EWS and Risk Assessment case study results are published in detail at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04575-2
DISCLAIMER: The findings and conclusions published herein are solely attributed to the author and not necessarily endorsed or adopted by the Journal of Science Policy and Governance or issue partners/sponsors. Articles are distributed in compliance with copyright and trademark agreements.

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