Journal of Science Policy & Governance | Volume 16, Issue 01 | April 13, 2020

White Paper: The Possible Expiration of the New START, the Last Nuclear Bilateral Treaty Between the United States and the Russian Federation

Daniel Puentes, Matthew J. Kuhn, Chelsie Boodoo, Kylie R. Smith, Nicholas T. Young
MSU SciComm, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI
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Keywords: Nuclear Arms Control; New START Extension; Russia; United States
Correction: A previous version of this paper contained an inaccurate date and referenced START II rather than the 1997 extension protocol. Both issues have now been corrected. (December 16, 2020).
Executive Summary: As the world returns to an era of great-power conflict, past treaties and agreements have unraveled. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) is the last bilateral arms control treaty that still exists between the United States (US) and the Russian Federation after the US exited the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty on August 2, 2019. New START places caps on the number of deployed nuclear warheads and the number of deployed and non-deployed delivery systems for these warheads for both states. New START is set to expire on February 5, 2021 unless both executive leaders agree to a five-year extension. The fate of New START results in three options: extension for five years, immediate replacement with another treaty or agreement, or expiration.

I. Introduction

Since 2018, the United States (US) has faced rising tensions over the regulation of nuclear armaments between sovereign states across the globe, straining long-standing arms agreements. These long-standing agreements, focused on limiting the weapons arsenals of world superpowers, have prevented arms races such as those seen during the Cold War. The most scrutinized relationship among nuclear superpowers is that of the US and Russian Federation. A failure to comply with international legal stipulations by nations such as the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran has led to the early termination of two of the three major nuclear arms treaties and agreements involving the US and the Russian Federation in the 21st century. Without an extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the third and final of the major nuclear arms treaties, will expire in 2021, potentially leaving the US and the Russian Federation without an arms agreement for the first time since 1972.
 
In order to establish an effective arms treaty between the US and the Russian Federation and prevent unimpeded nuclear proliferation, a firm understanding of previous arms control treaties before the START era is necessary.

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Daniel Puentes is a Ph.D. candidate at Michigan State University in the College of Natural Science. He is an Executive Board member and founder of MSU SciComm and a member of the National Science Policy Network (NSPN). Daniel has interests in both nuclear weapons and nuclear energy policy, both domestic and foreign.
 
Matthew J. Kuhn is a veterinarian and Ph.D. candidate at the Michigan State University College of Veterinary Medicine. Matt is also an active member of the Michigan Veterinary Medical Association’s Legislative Advisory Committee and specializes in agricultural policy.
 
Chelsie Boodoo is a Ph.D. student in the College of Engineering at Michigan State University. She is also Executive Board member and founder of MSU SciComm. Chelsie is a member of the National Science Policy Network (NSPN), and active with the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
 
Kylie Smith is a Ph.D. student at Michigan State University in the College of Engineering. She is a member of MSU SciComm.
 
Nick Young is a Ph.D. candidate at Michigan State University in the Colleges of Natural Science and Engineering. He is also an Executive Board member of MSU SciComm.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank MSU SciComm for hosting the Meta-Review on nuclear arms control treaties that provided the background for writing this manuscript. We would also like to thank the National Science Policy Network (NSPN) for facilitating the 2020 Election Initiative, for which this white paper is a product of. We thank our referees for the thoughtful comments and suggestions to improve the quality and flow of this manuscript.
 
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