Journal of Science Policy & Governance | Volume 16, Issue 01 | April 13, 2020

White Paper: The Possible Expiration of the New START, the Last Nuclear Bilateral Treaty Between the United States and the Russian Federation

Daniel Puentes, Matthew J. Kuhn, Chelsie Boodoo, Kylie R. Smith, Nicholas T. Young
MSU SciComm, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI
Download PDF
Keywords: Nuclear Arms Control; New START Extension; Russia; United States
Correction: A previous version of this paper contained an inaccurate date and referenced START II rather than the 1997 extension protocol. Both issues have now been corrected. (December 16, 2020).
Executive Summary: As the world returns to an era of great-power conflict, past treaties and agreements have unraveled. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) is the last bilateral arms control treaty that still exists between the United States (US) and the Russian Federation after the US exited the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty on August 2, 2019. New START places caps on the number of deployed nuclear warheads and the number of deployed and non-deployed delivery systems for these warheads for both states. New START is set to expire on February 5, 2021 unless both executive leaders agree to a five-year extension. The fate of New START results in three options: extension for five years, immediate replacement with another treaty or agreement, or expiration.

I. Introduction

Since 2018, the United States (US) has faced rising tensions over the regulation of nuclear armaments between sovereign states across the globe, straining long-standing arms agreements. These long-standing agreements, focused on limiting the weapons arsenals of world superpowers, have prevented arms races such as those seen during the Cold War. The most scrutinized relationship among nuclear superpowers is that of the US and Russian Federation. A failure to comply with international legal stipulations by nations such as the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran has led to the early termination of two of the three major nuclear arms treaties and agreements involving the US and the Russian Federation in the 21st century. Without an extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the third and final of the major nuclear arms treaties, will expire in 2021, potentially leaving the US and the Russian Federation without an arms agreement for the first time since 1972.
 
In order to establish an effective arms treaty between the US and the Russian Federation and prevent unimpeded nuclear proliferation, a firm understanding of previous arms control treaties before the START era is necessary.

-Read the full article through download.-
Download PDF

References

  1. Baker, Peter. 2010. “Twists and Turns on Way to Arms Pact With Russia.” The New York Times, March 26, 2010.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/27/ world/europe/27start.html?pagewanted=all 
  2. DeYoung, Karen. 2018. "Bolton And His Russian Counterpart Discuss Arms Control, Syria And Iran.” The Washington Post, August 23, 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/bolton-and-his-russian-counterpart-discuss-arms-control-syria-and-iran/2018/08/23/626eb772-a6f6-11e8-a656-943eefab5daf_story.html 
  3. Federation of American Scientists. 1998. “The Treaty Between The United States Of America And The Union Of Soviet Socialist Republics On The Reduction And Limitation Of Strategic Offensive Arms And Associated Documents.” Last updated December 23, 1998. https://fas.org/nuke/control/start1/ text/ 
  4. Grego, Laura. 2017. “No, Missile Defense Will Not Work 97% of the Time.” Union of Concerned Scientists: All Things Nuclear, October 13, 2017. https://allthingsnuclear.org/lgrego/missile-defense-will-not-work-97-percent 
  5. Grego, Laura, and David Wright. 2019. “Broken Shield: We Can't Count on Missile Defense to Defeat Incoming Nukes.” Scientific American, June 1, 2019. https://www.scientificamerican.com/magazine/sa/2019/06-01/ 
  6. Henderson, Jaclyn. 2018. "Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats on Russia’s INF Treaty Violation.” Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Published November 30, 2018. https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/speeches-interviews/item/1923-director-of-national-intelligence-daniel-coats-on-russia-s-inf-treaty-violation 
  7. Kimball, Daryl. 2019.a “U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreements at a Glance.” Arms Control Association.
    https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements 
  8. Kimball, Daryl. 2019b."The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty At A Glance.” Arms Control Association.
    https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/INFtreaty 
  9. Kimball, Daryl. 2019c. “START I at a Glance.” Arms Control Association.
    https://www.armscontrol.org/ factsheets/start1 
  10. Kimball, Daryl. 2019d. “START II and Its Extension Protocol at a Glance.” Arms Control Association. https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/start2 
  11. Kimball, Daryl and Kingston Reif. 2017. “The Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) At a Glance.” Arms Control Association. https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/sort-glance 
  12. Kristensen, Hans M. 2018. “After Seven Years of Implementation, New START Treaty Enters Into Effect.” Federation of American Scientists, February 8, 2018. https://fas.org/blogs/security/2018/02/newstart-ineffect/ 
  13. Kristensen, Hans M. 2019. “DIA Estimates For Chinese Nuclear Warheads.” Federation of American Scientists, May 31, 2019. https://fas.org/blogs/security/2019/ 05/chinese-nuclear-stockpile/ 
  14. Lugar, Richard G. and Ellen O. Tauscher. 2019a. “H.R.2529 - Richard G. Lugar and Ellen O. Tauscher Act to Maintain Limits on Russian Nuclear Forces.” US Congress, May 5, 2019. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/2529/text
  15. Lugar, Richard G. and Ellen O. Tauscher. 2019n. “S.2394 - Richard G. Lugar and Ellen O. Tauscher Act to Maintain Limits on Russian Nuclear Forces.” US Congress, July 31, 2019. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/2394/text 
  16. Neilan, Terence. 2001. “Bush Pulls Out of ABM Treaty; Putin Calls Move a Mistake.” The New York Times, December 13, 2001. https://www.nytimes.com/2001/ 12/13/international/bush-pulls-out-of-abm-treaty-putin-calls-move-a-mistake.html 
  17. Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2011. “Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on Strategic Offensive Reductions (START II).” Last updated October 26, 2011.
    https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-between-united-states-america-and-union-soviet-socialist-republics-strategic-offensive-reductions-start-ii/ 
  18. Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2019.“Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).” Last updated July 2, 2019. https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-non-proliferation-of-nuclear-weapons/ 
  19. Office of the Historian, Foreign Service Institute. n.d. “Strategic Arms Limitations Talks/Treaty (SALT) I and II.” US Department of State. Accessed on February 25, 2020. https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/salt 
  20. Reif, Kingston. 2017. “The Lisbon Protocol At a Glance.” Arms Control Association.
    https:// www.armscontrol.org/node/3289
  21. Reif, Kingston. 2018. "New START At A Glance.” Arms Control Association. https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/NewSTART 
  22. Reif, Kingston and Shannon Bugos. 2020. “Putin Invites U.S. to Extend New START.” Arms Control Association.
    https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-01/news/putin-invites-us-extend-new-start 
  23. Rotstein, Arthur H. 1994. “U.S. Air Force Turns B-52 Bombers Into Scrap Metal : Arizona: To Carry out an International Arms Treaty, America Is Dismantling the Planes That Were Once the Backbone of Its Nuclear Arsenal.” Los Angeles Times, September 11, 1994. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1994-09-11-me-37109-story.html 
  24. Ryabkov, Sergey. 2017. "Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov’s comment on anti-Russia attacks by the US over the INF Treaty.” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Published December 9, 2017.
    http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/kommentarii_predstavitelya/-/asset_publisher/ MCZ7HQuMdqBY/content/id/2983745 
  25. Taheran, Shervin, and Daryl G. Kimball. 2019. “Bolton Declares New START Extension ‘Unlikely’.” Arms Control Association, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-07/news/bolton-declares-new-start-extension-unlikely 
  26. US Department of State. 2019. “New START Treaty Aggregate Numbers of Strategic Offensive Arms.” Published July 1, 2019. https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty-aggregate-numbers-of-strategic-offensive-arms-10/ 
  27. Vaddi, Pranay, Nicholas Blanchette, and Garrett Hink. n.d. “New START: The Last Nuclear Arms Treaty.” Accessed on November 7, 2019.
    https://carnegieendowment.org/publications/interactive/new-start 
  28. Vaddi, Pranay, Nicholas Blanchette, and Garrett Hink. 2019. “What Happens If the Last Nuclear Arms Control Treaty Expires?.” Carnegie Endowment For International Peace, September 5, 2019. https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/09/05/what-happens-if-last-nuclear-arms-control-treaty-expires-pub-79782. https://www.journalofcosmology.com/Mars144.html 
  29. The White House. 2009. “Joint Statement by President Dmitriy Medvedev of the Russian Federation and President Barack Obama of the United States of America.” Published April 1, 2009. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/joint-statement-president-dmitriy-medvedev-russian-federation-and-president-barack- 
  30. The White House. 2009. “The Joint Understanding for The Start Follow On Treaty.” Published July 8, 2009. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/joint-understanding-start-follow-treaty 
  31. Woolf, Amy. 2019. “The New START Treaty: Central Limits and Key Provisions.” Congressional Research Service, May 30, 2019. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41219.pdf​
Daniel Puentes is a Ph.D. candidate at Michigan State University in the College of Natural Science. He is an Executive Board member and founder of MSU SciComm and a member of the National Science Policy Network (NSPN). Daniel has interests in both nuclear weapons and nuclear energy policy, both domestic and foreign.
 
Matthew J. Kuhn is a veterinarian and Ph.D. candidate at the Michigan State University College of Veterinary Medicine. Matt is also an active member of the Michigan Veterinary Medical Association’s Legislative Advisory Committee and specializes in agricultural policy.
 
Chelsie Boodoo is a Ph.D. student in the College of Engineering at Michigan State University. She is also Executive Board member and founder of MSU SciComm. Chelsie is a member of the National Science Policy Network (NSPN), and active with the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
 
Kylie Smith is a Ph.D. student at Michigan State University in the College of Engineering. She is a member of MSU SciComm.
 
Nick Young is a Ph.D. candidate at Michigan State University in the Colleges of Natural Science and Engineering. He is also an Executive Board member of MSU SciComm.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank MSU SciComm for hosting the Meta-Review on nuclear arms control treaties that provided the background for writing this manuscript. We would also like to thank the National Science Policy Network (NSPN) for facilitating the 2020 Election Initiative, for which this white paper is a product of. We thank our referees for the thoughtful comments and suggestions to improve the quality and flow of this manuscript.
 
Author Disclaimer
The opinions and statements expressed belong to the authors, and do not represent the views of the institutions with which they are affiliated. 
DISCLAIMER: The findings and conclusions published herein are solely attributed to the author and not necessarily endorsed or adopted by the Journal of Science Policy and Governance. Articles are distributed in compliance with copyright and trademark agreements.

ISSN 2372-2193
ISSN 2372-2193