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Journal of Science Policy & Governance | Volume 16, Issue 01 | April 13, 2020
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Technology Assessment: Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missiles: Burevestnik and its Implications
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Leah Walker
Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI |
Keywords: Nuclear; Missile; Ramjet; Russia
Executive Summary: In recent years the world has seen the greatest modernization of nuclear weapon arsenals since the end of the Cold War. This emergence of new weapon systems and new technologies comes at the same time that longstanding arms control agreements are faltering. Much of the innovation has been coming in the form of new weapon delivery systems, promising improved range, payload, speed, and stealth capabilities. With the US, China and other countries developing hypersonic missiles and Russia pursuing nuclear powered delivery systems, the world is entering a new era of nuclear weapons. ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) changed the dynamics of the Cold War with their promise of global reach in under an hour. Hypersonic missiles could cross the world in mere minutes. Recent years have seen the development of a new Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile that would be able to cause serious casualties and environment damage even without a nuclear payload.
I. Introduction
Russia’s nuclear-powered cruise missile, 9M730 Burevestnik, and other similar nuclear-powered delivery system designs are a product, not a cause, of the current tense state of global affairs. Russo-American relations have reached a point of tension not seen since the end of the Cold War. Recent years have seen the breakdown of several key arms control agreements between the US and Russia, namely the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE). The various SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks) and START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) agreements that were instrumental in stabilizing the Cold War and post-Cold War order have been allowed to expire or will expire soon (Countryman 2019). During this time, Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, most notably with its annexation of Crimea and conflict in Ukraine, and its confrontational moves in information warfare, especially Russian interference in the 2016 US election, have caused concerns across the international community.
It is in this environment that Russia is looking to upend the status quo of nuclear deterrence with weapon systems that are increasingly difficult to counter or detect once launched. These delivery systems also pose a serious threat to the fragile stability of deterrence. The design of these systems means that their testing alone is incredibly threatening to people and to the environment. Their deployment would be disastrous, their use, catastrophic.
This assessment is not based on pure hypotheticals. There has already been a deadly accident that has been attributed to nuclear powered cruise missile 9M730 Burevestnik, NATO codename “Skyfall”. Russia has not hidden its pursuit of this weapon, providing videos of tests and footage of its supposed construction. Nuclear powered cruise missiles are not a new concept. In the 1960s the US experimented with its own design of a nuclear-powered delivery system, but this line of experimentation was abandoned before the actual missile design was ever tested. The source material for this assessment comes from the numerous reports made after the 9M730 Burevestnik accident in August of 2019, the well documented Cold War-era US program to make a similar delivery system, and information that the Russian government has made public in recent years.
Certain assumptions have been made in this paper. As deterrence is dependent on adversaries having a solid understanding of an opponents’ capabilities (Jervis 1982), it is not unusual that Russia has given such information about 9M730 Burevestnik. The information should be taken as credible, though with the understanding that it is in Russia’s interest to exaggerate how far advanced the design is and how the system performs in tests. There has been no official confirmation by the Russian government that the accident in Nyonoska was the 9M730 Burevestnik. The majority of American Russia analysts and experts believe it was the 9M730 Burevestnik, and that is the official view of the United States government and of the American President (Restuccia 2019). As will be further discussed, there is significant evidence pointing to 9M730 Burevestnik as the cause of the August accident.
It is in this environment that Russia is looking to upend the status quo of nuclear deterrence with weapon systems that are increasingly difficult to counter or detect once launched. These delivery systems also pose a serious threat to the fragile stability of deterrence. The design of these systems means that their testing alone is incredibly threatening to people and to the environment. Their deployment would be disastrous, their use, catastrophic.
This assessment is not based on pure hypotheticals. There has already been a deadly accident that has been attributed to nuclear powered cruise missile 9M730 Burevestnik, NATO codename “Skyfall”. Russia has not hidden its pursuit of this weapon, providing videos of tests and footage of its supposed construction. Nuclear powered cruise missiles are not a new concept. In the 1960s the US experimented with its own design of a nuclear-powered delivery system, but this line of experimentation was abandoned before the actual missile design was ever tested. The source material for this assessment comes from the numerous reports made after the 9M730 Burevestnik accident in August of 2019, the well documented Cold War-era US program to make a similar delivery system, and information that the Russian government has made public in recent years.
Certain assumptions have been made in this paper. As deterrence is dependent on adversaries having a solid understanding of an opponents’ capabilities (Jervis 1982), it is not unusual that Russia has given such information about 9M730 Burevestnik. The information should be taken as credible, though with the understanding that it is in Russia’s interest to exaggerate how far advanced the design is and how the system performs in tests. There has been no official confirmation by the Russian government that the accident in Nyonoska was the 9M730 Burevestnik. The majority of American Russia analysts and experts believe it was the 9M730 Burevestnik, and that is the official view of the United States government and of the American President (Restuccia 2019). As will be further discussed, there is significant evidence pointing to 9M730 Burevestnik as the cause of the August accident.
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Leah Walker is a student of international relations at Michigan State. Her research focuses on nuclear weapons and emerging technologies.
DISCLAIMER: The findings and conclusions published herein are solely attributed to the author and not necessarily endorsed or adopted by the Journal of Science Policy and Governance. Articles are distributed in compliance with copyright and trademark agreements.
ISSN 2372-2193
ISSN 2372-2193
